The NHS in England faces a “crippling shortage” of GPs and general practice nurses in the next 10 years, experts have warned.

The Health Foundation’s REAL Centre estimated the shortage of qualified, permanent GPs will substantially deteriorate over the next decade to 10,700 full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs in 2030/31. This compares with a shortage of 4,200 FTE GPs today. It warned that without a change to current workforce trends and policies, more than one in four of the 37,800 GP posts needed to deliver pre-pandemic standards of care will be vacant.

If an increasing number of GPs leave the profession due to burnout and if newer roles are not successfully integrated in multidisciplinary general practice teams, the projected shortfall could increase to 20,400 FTE GPs – about half of posts being vacant – in 2030/31. However, the REAL Centre said the shortfall could be limited to about 3,300 GPs – or one in 10 posts by 2030/31 – if the government puts in place policies to improve recruitment and retention and if more allied health professionals are effectively integrated into primary care to reduce pressure on GPs and nurses.

Anita Charlesworth, director of research at the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre, said: “England’s GP services are under huge pressure. It’s sobering that over the next decade things are set to get worse, not better, with a growing shortage of GPs and practice nurses. While these issues are not unique to England, it is critical that government takes action to protect general practice and avoid it getting locked in a vicious cycle of rising workload driving staff to leave, in turn creating more pressure on remaining staff and fuelling even more departures. It must also be clear with the public that the way they access general practice will need to change. There are steps the government can take to limit the size of the shortfall, but there are no quick fixes.

“General practice is vital for a high quality and efficient health system, but the pressures it faces are longstanding, significant, and growing. Action is urgently needed to retain existing GPs and practice nurses, and to ensure that sufficient numbers are trained for the future. Beyond this, there needs to be a comprehensive plan for the successful integration of allied health professionals in general practice teams and sufficient capital investment to ensure primary care has the buildings and equipment it needs for the future.”

Royal College of GPs chair Professor Martin Marshall said the findings were “bleak but familiar.” He said: “GPs and our teams have been working under intense workload and workforce pressures for many years, but the pandemic has exacerbated these pressures. More consultations are being made every month in general practice than before the pandemic, and the care being delivered is increasingly complex. Yet, although recruitment efforts mean more GPs are in training than ever before, numbers of fully trained, full-time equivalent GPs are falling.

“Our campaign, Fit for the Future, launched last week, offers solutions to Government and decision makers to make general practice sustainable for the future.”

The REAL Centre’s report says while the NHS plans to recruit 26,000 allied health professionals by 2023/24, the demands on GPs are likely to increase rather than decrease in the short term because of the needs to supervise and manage these staff. The researchers add that under current policy the estimated shortfall of about 1,700 FTE in general practice nurse numbers in 2021/22 is likely to grow to about 6,400 FTE – more than one in four posts – by 2030/31. If there is an increase in nurse leaver rates and unsuccessful integration of newer roles, the projected shortfall could rise to about 10,100 FTE nurses in general practice by 2030/31.