Practices are already seeing significant numbers of patients with respiratory illnesses and potential flu, GP leaders have warned.
Tracking by the Royal College of GPs found that levels are now above average for this time of year. The college said it was “still within” expected levels for mid-December. Its monitoring found that 8,000 people visited GPs last week with flu-like illness, an increase of 1,500 on the previous week.
According to Public Health England, the rate of influenza in English primary care settings went above baseline threshold levels for the first time this season. Its weekly report, for week 50, shows that the overall weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) GP consultation rate was 13.1 per 100,000 registered population in participating GP practices for England, an increase from 10.6 per 100,000 in the previous week.
However, ILI rates were below baseline threshold levels for Scotland and Wales and were at moderate levels in Northern Ireland. Within community settings, 165 new acute respiratory outbreaks were reported in the past seven days, of which 49 were reported from care homes and 22 of which tested positive for ‘flu.
Hospitals reported 17 outbreaks, of which 13 were positive, and 94 outbreaks were reported from schools, of which 26 were tested positive for influenza A. The hospitalisation rate observed for laboratory-confirmed influenza was recorded at moderate intensity levels with a rate of 5.06 per 100,000 trust catchment population for England compared to 4.01 per 100,000 in the previous week.
Public Health England reports that the ICU/HDU admission rate observed for laboratory-confirmed influenza was above baseline levels, with a rate of 0.22 per 100,000 trust catchment population for England compared to 0.15 per 100,000 the previous week.
RCGP chair Professor Martin Marshall said: “Winter is certainly upon us and our Research and Surveillance Centre figures show rates of influenza-like-illness are higher than the five-year average, although still within levels that would be expected at this time of year.
“The rise is particularly notable in patients aged 5-14, and in practices in the north of England.”
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