Scotland may have lost the equivalent of one in 30 of its GPs in three years, according to a major new analysis.

Public Health Scotland published the results of its primary care workforce survey, showing a reduction in whole time equivalent GPs from 3,613 to 3,494. The Royal College of GPs said the data was not reliable – but questioned whether the Scottish government recognised the impact of individual GPs reducing working hours. The analysis was released as government data showed the Scottish waiting list, including outpatients, reaching 776,341 with 73,284 having waited for longer than a year.

RCGP joint chair in Scotland Dr Chris Williams said: “Missing data and attempts to use scaling factors unfortunately mean that the utility of the numbers within this report are limited. We need reliable measurements, not estimates that are based upon on returns from a little over half of Scotland’s GP practices.

“While the College supports the Scottish Government’s aim to deliver 800 new GPs in Scotland by 2028, we consider measuring GPs by headcount a mask to the true state of the general practice workforce. Up to date data on WTE GPs would enable a better understanding of the current workforce and its pressures, underpin workforce planning, and allow us to monitor progress against commitments.”

Dr Andrew Buist, chair of the British Medical Association’s GP committee in Scotland, said: “These are hugely worrying statistics that starkly illustrate the mismatch between demand and GP capacity in Scotland that we have warned of for some time. Put simply, this means there is less GPs capacity available to care for the people of Scotland than at any point since 2009, at the exact time we are seeing a substantial increase in the demand for care – driven by an increasing and ageing population and ever-lengthening waiting lists.

“It should be little surprise on that basis that some practices are collapsing, with GPs cutting hours or leaving the profession due to workload pressures and patients struggling to get the care they need. We need urgent direct investment to allow GP recruitment, we need a focus on easing the workload burden driving so many out of the profession and we need recent funding cuts to be reversed.”

The Scottish government meanwhile pointed to 20% reductions in the numbers of patients waiting for longer than a year for inpatient and outpatient appointments.

Scottish health secretary Humza Yousaf said: “We have already seen a huge effort to clear the backlog caused by the pandemic and we have seen two year outpatient waits in most specialities cleared. This is real progress on our recovery journey but we must stay focused on these efforts. I recognise the picture continues to be extremely tough, particularly as we head into winter, and that’s why our £600 million winter plan will see us recruit 1,000 new NHS staff and our £50 million Unscheduled Care Collaborative looks to reduce pressure on A&E through scheduled urgent appointments, Hospital at Home and directing people to more appropriate care.”