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NEWS: Anger as GP decline erased from stats

GP leaders have angrily accused civil servants of making politically inspired changes to doctor numbers – reducing the decline in GPs over the last six years.

NHS Digital released new data on GP and practice staff numbers in England, using new calculations dating back to 2015. Under the new system, there is a decline of 363 in the number of fully qualified GPs between September 2015 and June this year, based on full time equivalent numbers. Under the old system, the decline is nearly four times bigger – at 1,307.

Dr Richard Vautrey, GP committee chair of the British Medical Association, said the release of the data was “disingenuous.” The change has come about because in 2015 12% of practices failed to provide data – and NHS Digital estimated staffing numbers based on patient list sizes. The agency has now removed those estimates, reducing the numbers of GPs and other staff shown in the earlier years of the time series.

In its explanation, it says: “The withdrawal of estimates back to September 2015 could mean that for publications where the completeness and coverage were lower than they are now – particularly in the earlier years – early figures could be under-representing the true size of the workforce.”

The latest data shows a 1.2% increase in fully qualified GPs in the last year and an 18% increase in trainees. This includes a 3.1% reduction in GP partners – with numbers falling from 17,578 to 17,035. Overall, in six years, the number of GP partners has fallen by nearly 3,700, according to the latest data. The total non-medical practice workforce has increased by 3% in the last year, reaching 99,999 in June. The number of practice managers increased from 9,860 to 9,978 in the last year. There are also 276 management partners.

Dr Vautrey said: “It’s clear that the change in methodology was designed to obscure the reality; the data release is now less accurate and simply doesn’t capture what we know to be happening on the ground. The workforce crisis has been at the centre of GP pressures for over a decade, so to play down the reality of it is not only incredibly frustrating, but also insulting to the thousands of GPs who experience the impact that workforce shortages are having on their profession, and patients, every day.

“We can’t make improvements without understanding the extent of the problem, which is why NHS Digital must be allowed to revert to its original methodology as a matter of urgency. We’re already losing talented, experienced GPs to the workforce crisis – attempting to gaslight them into believing it’s not real is only going to drive more away.”

NHS Digital was approached for comment.

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