GP leaders in Scotland have spoken of “extreme concern” about how practices will cope with the winter after a survey found most doctors worried about providing care.

Some 73% of GPs said their workload would hamper providing good care over the winter in a survey undertaken by the Royal College of GPs. The survey also found that 38% of GPs are expecting to leave the profession within the next five years.

It came after a separate plea for a workforce plan for general practice to ensure adequate nurses, pharmacists and other members of multi-disciplinary teams. The college said that retaining GPs in Scotland is now the “biggest priority.”

Joint chair Dr David Shackles said: “The winter period always brings increased pressure for general practice, particularly with the added challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has seen GPs and their teams working beyond capacity for months on end. GPs work incredibly hard in challenging circumstances to meet the demand from patients all year round, however it is clear from these survey findings that GPs simply do not have the capacity to take on any further workload increases, particularly when there are already significant staffing challenges.

“Traditionally, over the winter period, there is no doubt that GP workloads increase, and we are extremely concerned about the impact this is likely to have on practice staff who are already finding it difficult to cope this year. Staff are exhausted and under-strain.”

Joint chair Dr Chris Williams said: “With winter looming, GPs and their teams are already bracing themselves for a particularly tough few months ahead and the cracks are already starting to show. More than half of GP respondents (54%) expect working in general practice to get worse over the next few years, with 56% of these citing workload and demand factors.”

A similar warning was issued by the British Medical Association over the weekend.

Speaking to the conference of Scottish local medical committees, BMA Scottish GP chair Dr Andrew Buist said: “GPs are a resilient group, but we are tired. The demands we are facing are huge and often beyond our capacity – I fear for the well-being of individuals trying to do their best and it not being enough. The government and the public must appreciate the GP service or they won’t know what they had until it’s gone – the independent contractor model has served the country well since the beginning of this NHS, but there are limits to which GPs can be exposed.”

He added: “Workforce supply across primary care is a problem, the new community services have been significantly held up by a lack of available healthcare workforce; this is something the Scottish Government urgently needs a credible plan to improve on. We need the physiotherapists, the pharmacists, the nurses who are all key parts of the multi-disciplinary teams we need in place if we are truly to deliver the vision the contract sets out.”