More GPs are retiring early – and the number has been increasing since 2008, according to new figures published today in advance of tomorrow’s Government announcement of its plan to solve the NHS workforce crisis.

Data provided to The BMJ by the NHS Business Services Authority, under a freedom of information request, showed the number of GPs and hospital doctors in England and Wales opting for voluntary early retirement has risen yearly by an average of 9.3%, from 376 in 2008 to 1,424 in 2023. The number of hospital doctors retiring early rose from 178 in 2008 to 557 in 2023, while the number of GPs taking early retirement increased from 198 in 2008 to 867 in 2023. Overall, the total number of doctors retiring has risen by 35% over the past 15 years, from 2,431 in 2008 to 3,277 in 2023. Over the same 15-year period, the total number of doctors employed by the NHS in England and Wales has increased by 33%, from 141,000 in 2008 to 187,000 in 2023. The figures relate to doctors who claimed their NHS pension in a specific pension year, some of whom may have returned to work in the NHS in other roles after claiming their pensions.

The Liberal Democrats, earlier this week, reported that 22% of GPs are now over the age of 55, creating a “retirement time bomb”.

Dr Vishal Sharma, chair of the British Medical Association consultants committee and pensions committee, said the data on retirement backed up its warnings over many years about the premature loss of vital clinical expertise. He told The BMJ: “Whether through reduced hours or retirement, the loss of expertise of our most senior doctors—whether in hospitals or GP practices—is a huge loss for patients, colleagues, and the future of the NHS.”

The early retirement trend coincided with the introduction of pension taxation rules that penalised doctors for doing more hours or staying in work, he added. Many of these rules are now to be scrapped, the Government has announced.

Dr Sarah Tennant, chair of the pension committee of the Hospital Consultants and Specialists Association, said: “Substantial erosion of doctors’ pay over the past decade further incentivises them to lock in their benefits because, unlike pay, pensions in payment are inflation linked. Pensions tax has been a significant and increasing cause of early retirement among senior doctors, and we fear it will remain so, due to continued uncertainty.”

The Government is expected to announce a doubling of medical school places, an expansion of medical apprenticeships and a series of measures aimed at reducing pressure on doctors. The Royal College of GPs said it believed 22,000 doctors could leave the profession in the next five years.

Its vice-chair Dr Victoria Tzortziou-Brown said: “These aren’t just GPs approaching retirement age, but at all stages of their careers, often citing stress and burnout as reasons. GPs and their teams are working incredibly hard to deliver millions more appointments every month than before the pandemic, with almost half of these on the day of booking. But we are doing this with 930 fewer fully qualified, full-time-equivalent GPs than in 2019.

“The much-anticipated Workforce Plan should be a key opportunity for the Government to make clear how this situation can be turned around. We need to see a fully worked-out plan that commits to increasing the number of GPs with revitalised GP retention schemes. Even with an increased workforce, targets on GP access need to be clinically appropriate and tailored to patient needs. Not every patient will need to be seen within a week, as the Liberal Democrats are proposing, and imposing such a target could perversely impact on patients who want to book regular or routine appointments in advance. The bottom line is, we need a GP workforce that is supported to provide the care our patients need, innovate and thrive.”