Christmas lights are coming down, it’s cold outside, the dark months are upon us and the world has a killer pandemic on the rampage, how much worse can it get?

Bad news… January and February are going to be some of the toughest months for the NHS in a long, long time. The perfect storm, a ticking time-tomb that is about to hit, and hit hard.

Of course you already know this, so before you start shouting at your screen, please bear with me on this one!

Blue Monday

The third Monday in January is so called ‘Blue Monday’, not in reference to that overplayed song from the 80s, but the one that is scientifically proven. Back in 2006 Dr Cliff Arnall created a mathematical equation that proves that this is the most miserable day of the year (aka the January blues).

For those interested, or just clever, this is Dr Arnall ‘misery formula’ to back up his hypothesis:

And can be explained as such:

• W is weather
• D is debt
• d monthly salary
• T time since Christmas
• Q time since failure of attempt to give something up
• M low motivational level
• NA the need to take action

Of course, we now have ‘C’ for COVID and all of the additional concerns that the pandemic has brought us, including grief, higher debt, uncertainty, concern, liberty loss, no pub, sunshine holiday cancelled to Great Yarmouth and all of which now has resulted in a major increase in ‘oMH’ or ongoing mental health issues.

The 2021 formula

To support these COVID times, I have drafted in some expert help from my son and his girlfriend who are both secondary school maths teachers aka real nerds. They have come up with a new PI-Phillips-Murray formula, that includes the above, although is now specific for 2021:

• I Days in isolation
• 8d furlough income
• P time since last pub lunch
• B Number of people in social bubble
• S stress of working from home

Help at hand

So, this year’s Blue Monday is on 18^th January 2021. We need to take action in primary care to support mental health issues, in our community, our workplace and also at home. In doing so, we might just be able to help those that we reach out to that have frankly been beaten up by the current issues that life is bringing us.

The useful Equallywell.co.uk website seems to support ‘all things mental health’ and is supported by the following bodies:

• Charities
• Education providers
• Service user and carer organisations
• CCGs
• Professional and governing bodies
• Healthcare providers

Equally Well provides advice and guidance via useful links, numerous blogs including some specific to COVID related issues, news articles and resources that can support your Blue Monday.

Apart from the obvious benefits in promoting what is available to support mental health both nationally and locally, another consideration is that this is also a current hot topic with CQC. It is important to show you are managing the spike in ‘oMH’ issues and you will be able to show evidence if challenged with future questions from our regulator.

Date for the diary

Mental health awareness week for 2021 is 10-16 May 2021… time to get planning as I am certain that this will attract a significant amount of publicity this year.

Practice Index support

The following resources are also available on Practice Index:

Mental health in the workplace and Mental Capacity Act e-Learning courses are available on HUB

PLUS resources include Health checks for patients with mental illness, Mental capacity act policy and the Health and wellbeing policy.

Also, the forum is here for you all… it is now 14,260 members strong. We all need to manage and support our own, but we can also rely upon one another. Being a PM is a lonely business, so it is great that we have this network, please do not suffer in silence.

Stay physically and mentally safe in 2021.